Modified CDC COVID-19 USA Case Estimates April 1, 2020 to April 30, 2021

The following data-driven experiment was started in mid March 2020, based of a vague idea that confirmed death growth rates could be used to regressively predict likely numbers of future cases, based upon confirmed preliminary number of cases. The initial data experiment was started and posted on April 1, 2020 -- thus the terminology APRIL FOOLS REGRESSION.

Daily CDC data was transfer from the CDC webpage(s) into a numbers spreadsheet having the following columns.

SHOW SPREADSHEET IN SEPARATE WINDOW ↬
Download the Numbers spreadsheet modDR.numbers.

The calculation of D/eC presumes that, since Cases causes Deaths, One cannot die from Covid-19 unless one catches Covid-19 . This is a common sense inference, so the average rate of growth of deaths might be used to estimate the growth of Cases.

This is an "April Fools" modified regression: The confirmation of Deaths is an inherent dramatic stastistic and Cases is a more general fluent subject to various institutional "testing" policies. The eC calculculation resembles a "present/future value" (economic) calculculation.

For example, on May 20 the confirmed U.S. death rate Deaths/Cases = 6.0%. The estimated number of cases eC = 5,689,798 (vs. 1,528,235 "confirmed") and the corresponding modified death rate Deaths/eC = 1.61%.

PROJECT: Use reliable data sources to recalculate the fool's regression over current data collections (extended past 4/30/21) using various starting dates for death data.

Two charts are located at the bottom of the spreadsheet. The first chart shows the predicted Cases eC trend over time (4/1/2020 to 4/30/2021). The second chart compares the confirmed Deaths/C rate (green) with the predicted Deaths/eC rate (blue).